6* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Lions +7.5
The Key: Detroit fits into a simple system that has been way too good to ignore. You want to back road teams off a road loss in the month of November as doing so has produced a 75-30 (71%) ATS mark the last 10 seasons. There is also a system in play that stacks the odds heavily against New England. Eight games into the season or more, you want to fade home favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points in a game involving teams with a +/- 0.4 yards per play differential if the team you are fading outgained its last opponent by 150 yards or more. That's because doing so has produced a 31-8 (80%) ATS mark since 1983. Take the points.

7* NFC West Game of the Year on Seahawks -6.5
The Key: I love the defending Super Bowl champs at home in a game they really need to have. They trail the Cardinals by three games in the division standings and are also contending for a playoff spot with the 49ers as well as teams in the NFC North and NFC East. Seattle doesn't have an easy game left on the schedule so it needs to take care of business at home where it has been nearly unbeatable in recent years. The Cardinals came in to Seattle and won in the regular season a year ago, and that loss will serve as added motivation. The Seahawks are 9-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7.0 points under coach Carroll and have won these games by an average score of 28.8 to 12.7. Lay the points.

6* NFL Vegas Line Mistake on Redskins +10
The Key: The 49ers are being overvalued by odds makers here. They haven't established dominance in their new stadium, where they are 2-2 and haven't won by more than five points. This is also a look-ahead spot for the Niners with a big division game against Seattle Thursday. You want to fade favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points in the second half of the season if they have a win percentage of 51-60%, have won two of their last three games and are playing a team with a losing record. Doing so has produced an 81-38 (68%) ATS mark since 1983. Take the points.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Celtics +6

The Key: The Trail Blazers are being overvalued following six consecutive wins. They are 9-3 on the season but have played only three games on the road, losing two. The Celtics are 4-7 but have played some good teams close. They have four losses of five points or less to the likes of Dallas, Toronto, Phoenix and Cleveland, and they have a win over Chicago. Boston has been a tough road trip for the Blazers, who are 1-9 in their last 10 visits. Take the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Giants +3.5
The Key: The Giants have struggled, but the Cowboys seem to bring out the best in them. This isn't the best spot for Dallas either. It defeated the Giants by 10 points last month so its tendency will be to look ahead to Thursday's showdown with the Eagles. The Giants have won or lost by fewer than 3.5 points in 21 of the last 30 meetings. Dallas is only 12-25 ATS as a favorite under coach Garrett. It is just 1-8 ATS under his watch following a stretch of five or six wins in a seven-game span. It also bodes well for us that Dallas is 0-6 ATS the last three seasons in games played in the second half of the season versus teams that allow 6.0 yards per play or more. It has lost these games by an average score of 34.2 to 28.0. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on UC Irvine +4.5

The Key: I'll take the points with an experienced UC Irvine squad that returns 12 of its 13 top scorers. The Anteaters won't be fazed here after playing a talented Arizona team. They ended up losing to the Wildcats by 17 points but were successful at the defensive end, holding them under 40% shooting. That loss actually sets up a nice situational play as the Anteaters are 26-9 ATS in road games off a double-digit road loss since 1997. The Gaels are 3-0 and have covered both of their lined games, but they take a big step up in competition here. The Gaels are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win. They are also 0-4 in their last four meetings with Irvine. Take the points.

7* NBA Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Pistons +3
The Key: The Pistons have been a poor investment in the early going, but they have quietly covered the spread in three of their last four and are showing value in the home underdog role tonight. I expect a tremendous defensive effort from the Pistons following their worst defensive performance of the season. After holding Oklahoma City and Memphis below 40% shooting, they allowed the Magic to shoot 51.9%. The Suns are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA and have allowed their last two opponents to shoot above 51%. They have allowed 47% shooting or higher in five of their last seven games so there's a good chance the Pistons get it going offensively. Odds makers are certainly expecting to see a little offense tonight with the total set at 204.5. That bodes well for us as Van Gundy's teams are 30-11 ATS all-time in home games when the total is 200.0 to 204.5. Take the points.

6* ESPN2 National TV Annihilator on Toledo -6.5
The Key: Toledo will want this game just a little bit more on senior night. The Rockets are still in the hunt for a MAC West title as Northern Illinois still has a tough game against Western Michigan to come. Bowling Green doesn't have the same level of motivation working in its favor as it has already wrapped up the weaker MAC East. Toledo is 4-0 in the last four meetings with these wins coming by an average of 10.3 points. The home team has had the overwhelming advantage as it is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings. The Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home meetings against Bowling Green. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB Annihilator on Arkansas -12
The Key: Off a pair of easy wins to start the season, Wake Forest takes a big step up in competition tonight. When the Demon Deacons have caught a big number on the road, it's been for good reason. They are 19-34 ATS as a road underdog of 10 points or more since 1997. They are also 0-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons. They covered their first lined game of the season Monday but are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a cover, which is a sure sign of unreliability. Lay the points.

6* Big 12 Game of the Week on West Virginia -2
The Key: The Mountaineers let a heart-breaking one-point loss to TCU beat them twice as they laid an egg at Texas the following week. They haven't played since Nov. 8 so they've had plenty of time to put those losses behind them. It's senior night for West Virginia, and they'll be lacking no motivation as they seek revenge for back-to-back blowout losses to the Wildcats. The Mountaineers defeated Baylor 41-27 and took TCU right down to the wire. On their home turf, they are a better team than K-State, and that's why they're being favored over the 11th ranked team in the nation. The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB Annihilator on Harvard -16

The Key: Harvard will have no trouble getting up for this game. It was upset by Holy Cross last time out. And, in case that's not enough of a motivator, it was upset by Florida Atlantic last season. The Owls are 0-8 ATS in their last eight lined games and 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win of more than 20 points. They are also 0-7 ATS the last three seasons in road games after holding their previous opponent to 60 points or less. Lay the points.

7* AFC West Game of the Month on Raiders +9
The Key: This is a sandwich game for Kansas City, which is off a big win over Seattle and has Denver on deck. You want to fade favorites off an upset win at home that have a winning record as doing so has produced a 23-5 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Chiefs have played five road games this season and won by more than 7.5 points in just one of them. The Raiders haven't been as bad as their 0-10 record looks. They've played New England, San Diego and Seattle tough and have five losses of seven points or less. You want to back underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season if they check in with seven or more consecutive losses as doing so has produced a 94-46 ATS mark since 1983. Lastly, the underdog is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Kings -1
The Key: The Bulls are off a blowout win over the Clippers but are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a win. The Kings are off a loss to New Orleans but are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss. The Bulls are 6-0 on the road, but the Kings are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home games versus a team with a winning road record. The Bulls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning S.U. record. The Kings have performed well against the Bulls, going 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings while winning their two home meetings during this span by 42 and 29 points. Take the Kings.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Timberwolves +8.5
The Key: Off a big win over LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers, this matchup won't get San Antonio's competitive juices flowing. Minnesota is 3-0 ATS at home this season, and it has been competitive against the Spurs. The T-Wolves are 3-2 in the last five meetings and 2-0 in the last two home meetings. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Minnesota. Take the points.

6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Diego State -4.5
The Key: San Diego State is one win away from becoming bowl eligible so it will be on a mission tonight. It also catches Air Force at a good time as the Falcons are expected to be without leading rusher Jacobi Owens. The Aztecs have had Air Force's number. They have won the last four meetings straight up and are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Their last three wins in the series have come by at least seven points. Air Force is 0-6 ATS in road games the last three seasons after racking up 275 or more rushing yards in two straight games. It is 0-8 ATS the last three seasons in road games after two consecutive games of forcing one turnover or less. San Diego State is 6-0 ATS the last three seasons as a favorite of 3.5 to 10.0 points. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB Annihilator on Long Beach State +2.5
The Key: This is a revenge game for Long Beach State, which lost both of last season's meetings with Kansas State by double digits. Those games were at K-State and Puerto Rico. Now the 49ers get to host the Wildcats, and I expect home court to prevail. Kansas State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games and 4-15 ATS as a road favorite of 3.0 points or less or pickem since 1997. Take the points.

7* NCAAF Blowout Game of the Month on Nebraska -10
The Key: Odds makers appear to be begging for money on Minnesota, which is tied with Nebraska for second place in the Big Ten West. After destroying Iowa 51-14, the Golden Gophers held their own against Ohio State last Saturday. Yet, they're catching double digits? Something smells fishy. It's Senior Day in Lincoln, and the Huskers will be lacking no motivation. They were completely embarrassed in Madison, WI last week, and they were upset at Minnesota last season. They'll be out to save face and exact revenge here. Nebraska is 6-0 at home this season where it has won by an average of 22.5 points. The Cornhuskers are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a spread loss and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss of more than 20 points. Lay the points.

6* Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Illinois +6.5
The Key: Illinois can still become bowl eligible if it wins its last two, and I like its chances of keeping its hopes alive against Penn State. The Nittany Lions are 0-7 ATS off a home win over the last two seasons, 0-7 ATS in road games following a stretch where they've lost four or five of their last six games since 1992 and 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Penn State hasn't won by more than six points on the road this season, and Illinois has been solid at home where it has picked up all four of its wins - one of those against Minnesota. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the points.

7* ACC Game of the Week on Virginia +6
The Key: This is a major letdown spot for Miami, which put everything into last week's showdown against Florida State only to come up short after blowing a 16-0 lead. I don't see the Hurricanes being able to recover from that blow on the road where they are 1-3. Virginia is better than its 4-6 record leads you to believe, and it has had the benefit of a bye week to prepare. Plus, the Cavaliers need to win their last two to become bowl eligible, and they will be driven by that. They are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a cover, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Annihilator on Navy +13.5
The Key: This is a sandwich game for Northeastern, which is off a big upset win at Florida State and has a showdown at UMass on deck. Since playing Michigan State to a five-point game in its opener, Navy was kicked at Notre Dame and Providence in its last two. Still, playing superior competition should benefit it here. Northeastern is an unreliable 2-10 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons. Teams headed up by Ed DeChellis are 11-2 ATS all-time in games played away from home following a road loss of 20 points or more. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Bucks +3.5

The Key: This is a tough situation for the Wizards as they hit the road following last night's big win over Cleveland. The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win, and they'll have a tough time getting up for a Milwaukee team they defeated by 11 points earlier this month. That loss, along with last night's ugly performance in Toronto, assures us the Bucks will be motivated. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 10 points. Take the points.

6* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Lions +7.5
The Key: Detroit fits into a simple system that has been way too good to ignore. You want to back road teams off a road loss in the month of November as doing so has produced a 75-30 (71%) ATS mark the last 10 seasons. There is also a system in play that stacks the odds heavily against New England. Eight games into the season or more, you want to fade home favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points in a game involving teams with a +/- 0.4 yards per play differential if the team you are fading outgained its last opponent by 150 yards or more. That's because doing so has produced a 31-8 (80%) ATS mark since 1983. Take the points.

7* NFC West Game of the Year on Seahawks -6.5
The Key: I love the defending Super Bowl champs at home in a game they really need to have. They trail the Cardinals by three games in the division standings and are also contending for a playoff spot with the 49ers as well as teams in the NFC North and NFC East. Seattle doesn't have an easy game left on the schedule so it needs to take care of business at home where it has been nearly unbeatable in recent years. The Cardinals came in to Seattle and won in the regular season a year ago, and that loss will serve as added motivation. The Seahawks are 9-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7.0 points under coach Carroll and have won these games by an average score of 28.8 to 12.7. Lay the points.

6* NFL Vegas Line Mistake on Redskins +10
The Key: The 49ers are being overvalued by odds makers here. They haven't established dominance in their new stadium, where they are 2-2 and haven't won by more than five points. This is also a look-ahead spot for the Niners with a big division game against Seattle Thursday. You want to fade favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points in the second half of the season if they have a win percentage of 51-60%, have won two of their last three games and are playing a team with a losing record. Doing so has produced an 81-38 (68%) ATS mark since 1983. Take the points.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Celtics +6

The Key: The Trail Blazers are being overvalued following six consecutive wins. They are 9-3 on the season but have played only three games on the road, losing two. The Celtics are 4-7 but have played some good teams close. They have four losses of five points or less to the likes of Dallas, Toronto, Phoenix and Cleveland, and they have a win over Chicago. Boston has been a tough road trip for the Blazers, who are 1-9 in their last 10 visits. Take the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Giants +3.5
The Key: The Giants have struggled, but the Cowboys seem to bring out the best in them. This isn't the best spot for Dallas either. It defeated the Giants by 10 points last month so its tendency will be to look ahead to Thursday's showdown with the Eagles. The Giants have won or lost by fewer than 3.5 points in 21 of the last 30 meetings. Dallas is only 12-25 ATS as a favorite under coach Garrett. It is just 1-8 ATS under his watch following a stretch of five or six wins in a seven-game span. It also bodes well for us that Dallas is 0-6 ATS the last three seasons in games played in the second half of the season versus teams that allow 6.0 yards per play or more. It has lost these games by an average score of 34.2 to 28.0. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on UC Irvine +4.5

The Key: I'll take the points with an experienced UC Irvine squad that returns 12 of its 13 top scorers. The Anteaters won't be fazed here after playing a talented Arizona team. They ended up losing to the Wildcats by 17 points but were successful at the defensive end, holding them under 40% shooting. That loss actually sets up a nice situational play as the Anteaters are 26-9 ATS in road games off a double-digit road loss since 1997. The Gaels are 3-0 and have covered both of their lined games, but they take a big step up in competition here. The Gaels are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win. They are also 0-4 in their last four meetings with Irvine. Take the points.